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Therollercoasterridethatisbitcoin’slatestrallyhassomewonderingifwearenearingamarkettop,butouranalystsaren’tyetconvinced.KrakenIntelligence,ourteamofin-houseresearchexperts,hasreleaseditsFebruary2021MarketRecap&OutlookReport,whichdivesintodatathatsuggestsmarketparticipantenthusiasmenduresandthatinstitutionaladoptionremainsonanupwardtrend.
Readerswillgetarobustlookatessentialmarketdevelopmentsandthefundamentaldriversbehindvariouscryptoasset’spriceaction,includingBTC,ETH,ADA,DOT,LINK<C.
Forexample,ouranalystsfindthatbitcoinhasshownaremarkablystrongcorrelationtorisk-onassetsandrisk-offassetsasoflate.Weexaminethepotentialimplications,aswellaswhatkindofreturnandvolatilityonemightexpectinthemonthofMarch.?
Elsewhere,weexplorewhyCardano(ADA),Polkadot(DOT)andnon-fungibletokens(NFTs)allpostedoutsizedgainsinFebruary,withthelattercategoryattractingnotableinvestorssuchasMarkCuban,GaryVaynerchukandChamathPalihapitiyatotokenauctions.?
Bydownloadingourreport,you’llgainnewinsightsintofundamentaladoption,industrygrowthandbitcoin’sstrongfirstquarterperformance.
KeyTakeaways:
BTCLogarithmicRegressionRetracement–Historicpriceactionshowsthatbitcoinbullmarketcorrectionstypicallyretracebetween70-90%.Whenexamininglong-termtrends,ouranalystsconcludewearestillfarawayfromamajormarketcycletop.ETHTrailingBTC–EthereumprovedtobethepoorestperformingassetinahotFebruarycryptomarket,returningonlymodestgains.Onereasonmaybethattransactionfeesareincreasinglycostprohibitivetoallbutthelargesttransactions.However,toremedythis,developersareproposingachangetoitscodethatcouldadjustfeecalculations.HistoricVolatility–Bitcoin’spricereturnsandvolatilitybothremainedstronginthemonthofFebruary.Despiterecordingitssecond-mostvolatileFebruaryonrecord,Bitcoin’spriceappreciatedforthefifthconsecutivemonth.Ifthetrendcontinues,returnsshouldoutpacethehistoricalQ1average.Positive&NegativeCorrelations–Euphoriatookovertherisk-onmarketsandbitcoinwascertainlyapartofthatnarrativethatincludedstockslikeGameStopandTesla.Thateuphoriawanedneartheendofthemonthasfearsofinflationcausedamarketselloffandariseinlong-termU.S.bondyields.
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