AND:美联储四年多来首次加息 点阵图显示后面连着还有9次_PANDAI

在结束两天的会议后,北京时间今天凌晨,美联储宣布加息25个基点。

这是2018年以来美国首次加息。

从新闻稿看,联储认为价格压力是普遍的,不只是能源价格,还有劳动力等,目前的失业率已明显下降(2月份美国CPI通胀率为7.9%,40年来最高;失业率为3.8%,已接近疫前水平)。

联储准备从下次会议开始,减少国债和机构债MBS的持有量。

投票委员中,圣路易斯联储主席James Bullard投票加息50个基点。

据FT报道,在会后的记者会上,联储主席鲍威尔谈到加息是为了应对高通胀和紧张的劳动力市场 extremely tight labor market in high inflation.

点阵图(dot plot,投票委员对利率区间的预测)显示,联储官员比三个月前调高了利率预测,预计2022年剩下的时间还将加息6次,2023年加息至少3次。联邦基金利率届时将达到2.8%,高于影响经济增长的“中性位置”(多数官员预测的中性利率为2.4%)。

美联储确定了用于评估金融科技服务访问的系统:金色财经报道,美国联邦储备委员会已经建立了一个分级系统,用于评估是否授予对其账户和支付服务的访问权限,并对特许金融科技公司和加密公司产生影响。

去年五月,美联储制定了评估新特许金融科技公司在联邦储备银行的账户和支付服务请求的指导方针。它试图根据六项原则在审查请求时创建一组透明且一致的因素。经过公众咨询后,美联储在 3 月增加了一项补充措施,根据公司构成的风险水平创建分层系统。

该指南现已最终确定。美联储表示,此举预计将涉及加密货币等领域的公司,从事新活动且当局仍在为其制定适当的监督和监管框架的机构将接受更广泛的审查”。相比之下,拥有联邦存款保险的机构将受到更精简的审查。

美联储副主席Lael Brainard表示:新指南提供了一致且透明的流程来评估对美联储账户和支付服务访问的请求,以支持安全、包容和创新的支付系统。[2022/8/17 12:31:30]

美联储巴尔金:对央行数字货币概念持开放态度:6月21日消息,美联储巴尔金称,在利用资产负债表加大紧缩力度方面门槛很高。调整资产负债表缩减可能是明智的,但这是“未来的方案”。关于是否出售抵押贷款支持证券的任何决定都还有待做出。我仍然对美联储是否需要数字货币持怀疑态度,但我对央行数字货币概念持开放态度。[2022/6/22 4:43:37]

美国CPI(1965-2022)

美国劳动参与率(1948-2022)

联储新闻稿如下:

March 16, 2022

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

Indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. Job gains have been strong in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.

美联储:2021年底GDP增速预期中值为6.5%:根据美联储FOMC经济预期,2021年底GDP增速预期中值为6.5%,去年12月预期为4.2%;2022年底GDP增速预期中值为3.3%,去年12月预期为3.2%;2023年底GDP增速预期中值为2.2%,去年12月预期为2.4%。长期GDP增速预期中值为1.8%,去年12月预期为1.8%。美联储重申,如果出现可能阻碍美联储目标实现的风险,美联储将准备适当调整货币政策立场。(金十)[2021/3/18 18:54:42]

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain, but in the near term the invasion and related events are likely to create additional upward pressure on inflation and weigh on economic activity.

美联储主席鲍威尔:有信心美国将会全面复苏:美联储主席鲍威尔表示,有信心美国将会全面复苏,需要耐心。经济复苏需要一些时间才能完全恢复。合理的可能性是,美国国会和美联储将需要更多支持,以帮助复苏。此外,6月25日将公布美联储的银行压力测试结果。(金十)[2020/6/17]

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee expects to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at a coming meeting.

火币研究院:Libra 2.0符合美联储为代表的法币集团利益:近期,火币研究院发布“Libra 2.0分析报告”。报告指出:首先Libra 2.0符合美联储为代表的法币集团利益,这是Libra获支持的关键;第二,Libra将加速其他主权国家央行数字法币CBDC的推出进程,欧洲央行已经在研究发行CBDC,但对发行零售CBDC非常谨慎,因为可能影响商业银行的盈利模式造成新的系统性风险,倾向于先发行批发CBDC,相当于商业银行准备金的数字化。美联储虽然去年12月曾提美国5年内不会发行CBDC,然而疫情期间美国国会在经济刺激法案中提出“数字美元”计划;最后,Libra其实并未放弃打造无国界支付网络和金融基础设施的目标,Libra设想未来成为CBDC之间的“支付桥梁”,在Libra区块链上发行CBDC,通过LBR进行结算,虽然实现难度较大,但Libra在监管压力下并未放弃它的目标。[2020/4/26]

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Esther L. George; Patrick Harker; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was James Bullard, who preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage point to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. Patrick Harker voted as an alternate member at this meeting.

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