InternetvsBlockchainRevolution:ChallengesintheEarlyDays(Part3)ThisarticleispartoftheInternetvsBlockchainRevolutionSeries.Ifyouareinterestedinreadingtheotherarticles.Intheearlystageofemergenttechnologies,thereareoftenchallengesaroundscalability,cost,andeducation,limitingthedevelopmentofbreakthroughapplicationsandmassadoption.However,thesechallengesaregenerallysolvedovertimeaswehavewitnessedwiththeevolutionoftheInternetandweshouldexpectasimilartechnologicalprogressioninBlockchain.ScalabilityandCost:
PendingEthereumTransactionsafterCryptoKitties’Releasein2017
Despitetoday’sfastInternetconnection,theearlydaysoftheInternetfacedchallengesintermsofscalabilityandcost.OnAugust7,1996,AOL’sInternetservicefailedfromsupportingahighvolumeofInternetusersandwentdownfornineteenhours.Atthatpoint,Americanswereincreasinglylivingtheironlineliveseveryday,andAOLwasthecountry’slargestinternetserviceprovider,amongothercompetitorssuchasProdigy,CompuServeandMSN.TheInternetitselfhasn’tcrashedbuttheabilitytoaccessittemporarilystopped,anditwasabigdealformanywhostartedtogetusedtosurfingthewebintheirdailylife.ThisissimilartowhathappenedintheblockchainworldinDecember2017,inwhichtheofCryptoKittiesspikedtheon-chaintransactionvolumeonEthereumandcloggedthenetwork.Mostuserscouldn’tgettheirtransactionsthroughontheblockchainunlesstheywerewillingtobidahighamountofgasfees,whichcausedalotofconfusionanddistressinthecommunity.WhiletheEthereumnetworkjammademanyofusrealizethecurrentlackofscalabilityofblockchaintechnologyinservicingmorecomplexusecases,bothofthesefailuresinscalabilityduringtheearlydaysofInternetandBlockchainshowedavalidationofhowimportantthesetechnologieshadbecomeinafewyearsfortheearlyadoptersandtheneedforbetterscalabilitysolutionstosupportthegrowinguserbaseanddemand.
Sam Altman：OpenAI在一段时间内不会开启训练GPT-5:4月14日消息，在麻省理工学院的一次活动中，OpenAI首席执行官Sam Altman被问及最近在科技界流传的一封公开信，该公开信要求像OpenAI这样的实验室暂停开发比GPT-4更强大的人工智能系统。这封信强调了对未来系统安全性的担忧，但遭到了包括一些签署方在内的许多业内人士的批评。
对此，Altman确认该公司目前没有训练GPT-5，且在一段时间内不会进行训练。[2023/4/14 14:04:49]
AverageInternetandWirelessMobileTelecommunicationSpeedintheUS
ThehighnetworkfeesandcostsforlaunchingastartupduringtheearlydaysoftheInternetandthecurrentstateoftheBlockchainindustryisalsosimilar.Backthen,theprocessofgettingonlinerequiredamodemandaphoneline,inwhichalltheonlineservicesmaintainedanetworkoflocalmodemsforpeopletodialin.Themostpopularonlineserviceatthetime,AOL,charged$9.95/monthfor5hoursofunlimitedaccesswitheachadditionalhourcosting$2.95,whichbytoday’sstandard,wasveryrestricting.Howeverovertime,thebroadbandconnectionswithDSLeventuallycame,scalinguptheInternetspeed,andby2014,theInternetspeedwas200timesfasterand90%cheapercomparedto1999.Similarly,wehavealsowitnessedanincreaseofwirelessmobiletelecommunicationspeedovertheyears,fromlessthan1Mbpswith2Gtechnologyto25Mbpswith4Gtechnology,enablingnewservicestobeviableandpracticalthroughthemobilephone,suchasmusicandvideostreaming.Overtime,thelimitationsaroundthescalabilityandcostweregraduallyremoved,allowingformorecomplexandbandwidth-intensiveapplicationstobepracticalandviable.
声音 | TD Ameritrade首席市场策略师：未来一段时间内BTC仍将维持区间波动:券商巨头TD Ameritrade的首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan在谈及BTC最近的行情走势时表示：“今天出现了一个不错的下行走势，但在我看来，未来一段时间内仍将维持区间波动。我不知道有什么刺激因素可以将价格带离此范围。在我看来，这与我们看到的市场整体状况相符。”（彭博社）[2019/11/9]
TransactionSpeedofVariousBlockchainProjects
Intheblockchainworld,wearestillearlyinthedevelopmentcycleofthetechnology,inwhichthechallengesaroundscalabilityandcostarepreventingthepracticalityofmorecomplexusecasesandlargeuserbase.Lowscalabilitymeansthatthedevelopersoruserswouldhavetopayhigherfeestooutbidtheothertransactionsinthequeuetoreducewaittime.AsofFebruary2019,theaveragetransactionsfeesareroughly$0.13forEthereum,inwhichmorecomplexdapps,suchason-chaingames,wouldquicklyrackuphightransactionfees.Althoughnoteveryactionneedstoliveon-chain,thereisstillanurgentdemandforblockchaintobescalabletosupportthegrowingnumberofdapps,andallthedaytodaytransactions(Visaprocesses24,000transactionspersecond)livingonthesameledger.Numerousprojectsareworkingondifferentmeanstoscalethetransactionspeedofblockchain,withvariabletrade-offsbetweenscalability,security,anddecentralization.WiththerecentmainnetlaunchesofEOSandTRON(4,000and750TPSrespectively),wehaveseenanincreaseofmorecomplexdappsbeingreleasedinthepastcouplemonths,andweexpectthistrendtocontinueasmorescalableblockchainsarebeingdeployedinthespace.Overall,thedifferentscalingsolutionsbeingexploredsuchasnoveldatastructures(Sharding,Tangle,DAG,Codaetc.),layer2solutions(Sidechains,off-chains,hashed-timelocksetc.),andmoreefficientconsensusalgorithms(POS,DPOS,Casper,Avalanche,Hashgraphetc.)willgraduallyincreasethebandwidthandreducethecostfortransactionsontheblockchain,enablingnewusecasesandservicesovertheyears.
声音 | 陈伟星：区块链时代需要经历一段“欺诈时代”:陈伟星发微博称，区块链不是高效赚钱的工具，而是创造公平赚钱规则的技术。想当一个规则制定者，又天天炫耀自己赚钱，好比裁判炫耀自己赢得比赛一样可笑。 ????华尔街之所以为华尔街，因为当时一段物欲横流、子当道的历史，催生了影响全球的证券法、证券交易法，以及一群熟悉金融市场的原生交易者。区块链时代，中国要想成为未来的世界金融中心，不经历一段“欺诈时代”，是学不到未来金融核心经验的。所以乐观点讲，子也是“老师”，让创造者学习到如何准确的定义问题。[2019/7/24]
ThedecreaseofthecostoflaunchingaStartupfrom1999-2010
Additionally,weexpectthatthecostoflaunchingblockchainstartupswillalsodecreaseovertime.DuringtheInternetrevolution,theaveragecostofstartingastartupalsodrasticallyreducedovertheyears,from$5min1999to$500kin2005,and$50kin2010.Thefirstwaveofcostreductionwasduetotheappearanceofopensource(whichmeantnolicenseforUNIX,webserversandOracledatabases)andhorizontalcomputing(whichmeantnoneedtobuyexpensiveSunservers&EMCstorage).Then,thesecondwaveofcostdecreasewasduetothematurationofcloudcomputing,popularizedbyAWS,providingwebstorage(S3),processingpower(EC2)andtheabilitytoscaleupordowndependingontraffic(auto-scaling)onthecloud.AccordingtoGartner,deployingenterpriseblockchainproof-of-conceptshasastartingcostof$275,000andcangouptoseveralmillionsofdollars.Dependingontheblockchain(Ethereum,Neo,EOS,etc),thedeploymentandtransactionfeesofsimpledappsonpublicblockchainscancostyou$30-85k(interestingbreakdownhere),andcurrentblockchaintalentsareinshortageandexpensive($150konaverage).SimilartotheevolutionoftheInternet,wealsoexpectacostreductioninlaunchingblockchainprojectsastheblockchaintransactionspeedbecomesmorescalableandcheaper,morefull-stackplatformsontheenterpriseside(BaaShosting-Kaleido,AWS,Azure,Oracle,etc),developmentplatform(NoOps-Esprezzo),middlewares(Omnitude)anddevelopertools(Mist,Geth,Remix,etc)arebeingreleased,andmoretalentsmigratingintotheblockchainspace.Education:
声音 | TokenGazer：比特币使用量和关注度持续走低，仍需一段时间调整:据火星财经消息，研究机构TokenGazer发布《Bitcoin（比特币）12月月报》分析报告。报告指出，12月比特币在链上交易数量、使用量以及Google搜索指数上进入低点后进行相应回调，这表明短期内用户关注价值和使用价值都在恶化但仍存在一定市场基础；NVT（衡量比特币市值和使用量之间的关系）值不断下降，但仍处于高位，说明价格虽相对大幅度降低，但目前比特币使用价值仍旧处于泡沫较高阶段。报告还分析到，数字资产间的相关性显著提高，意味着整个市场走势高度受到比特币的领导。最后报告得出结论，基于使用量和关注度的持续走低，比特币仍然需要一段时间的调整。[2019/1/9]
Atonepoint,50%oftheCD'sproducedworldwidehadanAOLlogoonitEducationisanessentialdriverfortheadoptionofnewtechnologies,loweringthebarriertoentry,andhelping"crossingthechasm"(atermcreatedbyGeoffreyMoore).Beforethechasm,technologyisusuallytreatedasaforeignobject,andonceithastrulycrossed,itisperceivedassafetoconsume.DuringtheearlydaysoftheInternet,JanBrandtfromAOLwashiredasVPofmarketingtogrowitsuserbase.Duringmarketresearch,sherealizedthatpeopledidn’tknowhowtousethecomputeras“someonetookacomputermouseandstartedpointingitatthecomputerliketheremotecontrol”,soitwasimportanttogobacktothebasics.Sellingconsumersonthevirtueofoneonlineserviceoveranotherwasnotasimportantaseducatingconsumersonwhatanonlineservicewas.ThemarketingstrategyimplementedbyAOLwastosendouttrialdisksandCDsforpeopletotryout,andtheresultsprovedtobeextraordinary,withpeoplesigningupandprovidingtheircreditcards.AOLre-investedsomuchintothestrategythatCDswerefoundeverywhere,inpeople’smailboxes,onnewcomputers,inmagazines,givenawaywithmovierentals,etc.sothatatonepoint,50%oftheCDsproducedworldwidehadtheAOLlogo,leapfroggingthecompetitorsandgrowingitsuserbasefrom200kto25Mclientsovertheyears.Overall,AOL’scampaignisagoodexampleofasuccessfulinitiativeindrivingadoptionbyactivelyloweringthebarrierofentryforthelesstech-savvycrowdofearlyusers.
声音 | 韩国金融服务委员会官员：区块链商用还有很长一段路要走:据报道，在全球区块链委员会论坛上，韩国金融服务委员会官员Song Hyun Do称，我们还处在这个行业的起步期，很多研究都是在摸索中进行，如对支付、交易、认证等系统的研究。区块链技术有巨大潜力，但目前还不能大规模商业化，尤其在金融领域。区块链技术最近的确对传统的Swift垄断结算产生了较大影响，但要商用，可能需要放松监管，那还有很长一段路要走。[2018/9/20]
LearnandEarn0xprogramfromCoinbase
Todrawaparallelwiththecryptocurrencyworld,wehaveseenmanyinitiativesineducatingthenextgenerationofcryptoandblockchainadopters,withlargeconferences,suchasConsensus,corporateeducation,takenbyDeloitteorIBM,developereducation,suchasConSensysAcademy,anduniversityeducation,suchasBlockchainEducationNetwork.Manycompaniesarealsoattemptingtoingiveouttokensorcoldwalletsforfreethrougheventsandmarketingcampaigns.Recently,Coinbaselaunchedalearnandearncryptoprogram,offeringcryptocurrencyrewardsforcompletingtheireducationalcourses.Currently,interactingwithblockchainstillhasalotoffrictions,andrequireyoutohavesomefoundationknowledge(private/publickeys,gas/transactionfeesetc.)comparedtotraditionalpaymentsolutionssuchasVenmo,orPaypal,nottomentiontheirreversiblerisksthatcomewithkeymanagementandtransactions.Wearestillearlyintheindustrywithlessthan1%ofworldwideadoption,andeducatingthegeneralpopulationaboutcryptocurrency,blockchainandkeymanagementwillbeveryimportantfortheindustrytogrow.LargecompaniessuchasAOLandCoinbasearewellpositionedtoofferextraincentivesthroughgiveawayCDtrialsandcryptocurrenciestoactivelyhelplowerthebarrierofentryanddrivefurtheradoption.Overall,it’sundeniablethattheBlockchainindustryhasbeenmakingsignificantprogresstowardssolvingthechallengesaroundscalability,cost,andeducationoverthepastfewyears.Althoughwearestillearlyinthistechnologicalcycle,weareconfidentthatBlockchainwillmatureinasimilarfashionastheInternet,graduallybecomingmorescalable,affordableandpracticalformassadoption.-----TheInternetRevolutionfactsarebasedonthebook“HowtheInternetHappened”,writtenbyBrianMcCullough.MarkTwainoncesaid“Historydoesn’trepeatitself,butitdoesrhyme”.WeareattemptingtodrawsomesimilaritiesbetweentheInternetandBlockchainRevolutions,tohelpentrepreneursandinvestorsbetterunderstandtechnologicallifecycles.Sources:Book“HowtheInternetHappened”,writtenbyBrianMcCullough.https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/reply-unending-chasm-how-survive-geoffrey-moore/https://www.coinbase.com/earn/0xhttps://bothsidesofthetable.com/why-has-seed-investing-declined-and-what-does-this-mean-for-the-future-6a9572357130https://bothsidesofthetable.com/a-deep-dive-into-what-has-really-changed-in-venture-capital-f5d225f7f8https://howmuch.net/articles/crypto-transaction-speeds-comparedhttps://ylv.io/how-much-does-it-costs-to-run-dapp-in-2018/https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/ethereum-transactionfees.html八维研究院出品的其他研究跨境金融科技平台Pandaq正式发布｜八维资本XTrueChain
《互联网vs区块链革命》系列之一：早期的成功产品
《互联网vs区块链革命》系列之二：颠覆性公司的起源
硬核技术：证券型通证需要专属的区块链吗?
企业级区块链：过去、现在和未来
Medium:https://medium.com/@8DecimalCapital
八维资本是一家跨境的国际专业区块链投资机构，管理美元和Token两支基金，总资金规模超过六千万美金。团队合伙人来自一线VC、PE，基金顾问包括前瑞士银行中国区CEO陈庆，前红杉中国创始人合伙人张帆。八维专注于区块链赛道投资，同时对上下游产业资源进行战略布局。八维投资了底层技术、隐私、存储、SecurityToken、稳定币等赛道的顶尖项目，如EOS、Icon、IoTeX、Zilliqa、Bluzelle、IRISNetwork等，同时布局了交易所、媒体、咨询、技术社区等战略协同资源，如0x、Fcoin、Kyber、Bibox、Mobilecoin、Dorahacks、星球日报、币世界、WXY等。在美国TokenMetrics榜单中，八维投资回报位列50家国际基金的前三位，也被36氪、清华x-lab等机构评为中国Top10区块链投资机构。
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